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TEHRAN, November 29 -An end to the bull run in global stocks is not far away, according to a Reuters poll which also showed a broad cut to forecasts for next year on concerns over global growth and tightening financial conditions.
TEHRAN, Young Journalists Club (YJC) -An end to the bull run in global stocks is not far away, according to a Reuters poll which also showed a broad cut to forecasts for next year on concerns over global growth and tightening financial conditions.
World stocks tested lows at the end of October during a brutal rout that wiped off trillions of dollars of market value, driven by a U.S.-led trade war and a hawkish Federal Reserve.
The recent turbulent sell-off in stocks is more or less over, according to nearly 250 equity strategists polled Nov 13-28. But they mostly said 2018 would end up a forgettable year with most markets set to finish off in the red.
While all but one of the 17 stock market indexes polled are forecast to gain by end-2019 from now, about half were not expected to recoup this year’s losses. Strategists also lowered their outlooks compared to three months ago, when almost everyone missed the recent rout.
Shanghai Composite index was the only exception, where strategists raised their outlook from three months ago. But even China stocks will not completely recoup this year’s losses of more than 20 percent by end-2019.
The latest predictions for most stock indexes were below what strategists penciled in early this year and clearly show the blistering rallies of 2017 are well in the rear-view mirror.
The risks that have driven stocks lower recently - trade tensions, Brexit negotiations, trouble in emerging markets - could hurt the U.S. financial system, the Fed said in a first-ever report devoted to financial stability.
Still, over 40 percent of strategists who answered an additional question, 48 of 110, said the current bull run in global stocks has more than a year to go. About 25 percent expect it to end within a year But nearly a third of respondents said the bull market has already ended.“While volatility will remain elevated - we’ve seen two 10 percent corrections this year already - we don’t feel that a true bear market will begin until we are in a recession or entering a recession,” noted Mona Mahajan, investment strategist at Allianz Global. Source:Reuters
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